Prediction Markets Trader

As a Prediction Markets Trader at DRW, you will develop, execute, and optimize high-conviction trading strategies in binary event contracts. You will manage a live portfolio targeting consistent positive expectancy through market making, microstructure exploitation, cross-platform arbitrage, event-driven momentum, and statistical models. This role requires genuine, demonstrated passion for prediction markets, strong quantitative reasoning, and the ability to operate in thin, volatile, event-resolution-driven environments.

What you'll do

• Monitor and trade active markets in real time across Polymarket (CLOB/Gamma/Subgraph APIs) and Kalshi (FIX/WebSocket/REST)
• Execute strategies including market making with dynamic skew, microstructure arbitrage (order-flow and book-imbalance sniping), cross-platform arbitrage, news and event momentum (sub-second reaction), and statistical pairs and mean-reversion
• Develop and backtest models using historical tick data, Bayesian probability updates, NLP sentiment parsing, and machine learning for fair-value estimation
• Collaborate with engineering on low-latency infrastructure including API integrations, order engines, and anomaly detection

What you bring

• A bachelor's degree or higher in Quantitative Finance, Statistics, Computer Science, Economics, Mathematics, or equivalent
• Strong programming skills in Python (pandas, NumPy, backtesting)
• A solid foundation in probability, statistics, time-series analysis, and Bayesian methods
• Hands-on experience with prediction market platforms (Polymarket and/or Kalshi APIs) or closely related domains such as options, binary events, or sports and event betting
• Genuine, demonstrated interest in prediction markets, including active engagement with the space through personal trading, deep reading of protocols, following major resolutions, and contributing to discussions

Nice to have

• Prior profitable trading experience in prediction markets, options, or event-driven strategies (personal or professional)
• Familiarity with blockchain and DeFi tools such as ethers.js, Polygon RPC, and USDC wallets
• Experience with low-latency systems, FIX protocol, or Web3 integrations
• A track record of building and backtesting quantitative models with real historical data
• Deep domain knowledge of high-impact events in politics, macroeconomics, climate, or sports

What we offer

• Annual base salary of $175,000 to $200,000 depending on experience, qualifications, and relevant skill set
• Annual discretionary bonus eligibility
• Comprehensive employee benefits including group medical, pharmacy, dental and vision insurance, 401(k) with discretionary employer match, short and long-term disability, life and AD&D insurance, health savings accounts, and flexible spending accounts

About DRW

DRW is a major Chicago-based proprietary trading firm founded in 1992, specializing in diversified, technology-driven market-making and quantitative trading across asset classes including fixed income, options, derivatives, commodities, energy, equities, FX, and cryptocurrency. DRW is building out a dedicated prediction markets desk focused on platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi.